George Will vs. John Edwards

March 13th, 2006

Nontrivial Pursuits links of interest:
Republican Nemesis
Economic Justice

Recognizing that John Edwards has a decent chance of becoming the Democrats’ nominee in 2008, conservative pundit George Will decided to use his March 5th Washington Post column to take an early swipe at Edward’s campaign to help the nation’s poor. His answer to Edwards? Poor people are poor because they bring it on themselves. In his column, he claimed that poverty results from “…individuals’ nonmaterial deficits…from a scarcity of certain habits and mores—punctuality, hygiene, industriousness, deferral of gratification…” Yes, it’s the old Personal Responsibility argument, one that Senator Edwards will need to respond to effectively if he is ever going to prevail against his Republican opposition.

One of the first things Edwards would acknowledge right up front to any of his critics is that Personal Responsibility is a factor that contributes to the poverty that some individuals experience. The key question is how much of a factor? The Republicans would have us believe that it is 98% of the problem. They encourage this belief because they really don’t want to be bothered to do anything about poverty. Not if it might mean that they’d have to give up a few bucks to help someone else out. Supporters of John Edwards obviously feel differently about this.

It’s impossible to go out and measure how much of a factor Personal Responsibility is in the current calculus of poverty, but there is something that Congress could do to eliminate competing possibilities. If Congress were to create and maintain a jobs environment where there are more jobs available than there are people to fill them, then you would see even people like me adding my voice to George Will’s in chiding those who are (1) unemployed, (2) in need of income, and (3) able to perform productive work.

Poverty exists in America for one very fundamental reason: there are insufficient jobs available to eliminate it. You see, it takes more than just having ‘enough’ jobs for everyone. In order to put upward market pressure on wages and benefits for poor people and improve their lives in significant ways, we need to create and maintain a true labor shortage. For the first time, the working poor would experience real economic security. (Maybe not job security, but at least income security. Jobs would still be lost, but new jobs would always be easy to find.)

When people are working for the income they are spending, they are actually doing something that benefits everyone else. This is because those who are not working do not stop consuming; they just aren’t producing any of the stuff they consume. Somebody else is. As a society, we all become richer—-in real terms—-when all those who are idle become productive. If part of your productive output is no longer needed to provide for the basic consumption needs of the unemployed (because they are now producing for themselves), then that means more of your output becomes available for your own consumption. When/if we employ all those who are able-bodied and able-minded in real wealth producing activities, everyone else automatically gets a pay raise IN REAL TERMS.

It’s a happy outcome that Congress could bring about by simply spending more on investments in our nation’s infrastructure. You see, there is one economic truth above all others that we must never forget: all incomes (and therefore all jobs) in the economy are dependent on the SPENDING of others. When there is a recession, it is because aggregate spending (GDP) has dropped. Whenever an economy has recovered from a recession, it is because aggregate spending has increased. If Congress were to increase spending sufficiently, at some point all unemployment would be eliminated and an actual Labor Shortage would exist. That’s when the poor would begin to receive all of the benefits that John Edwards would like to provide for them. (Worried about inflation? Read this.)

Create a sustained labor shortage in this country, George Will, and I will be more than happy to take a seat right next to you on the Personal Responsibility Bandwagon. Let’s end the debate forever by embracing a grand social experiment. Instead of simply claiming that Personal Responsibility failures are the key to poverty, let’s go ahead and give the poor an ideal labor market to work with and see what they do with it. If you’re right, then you will be able to crow about how wise and prescient you were and all thoughtful bleeding heart Democrats will have no choice but to admit that you were right. You’re not going to live forever, George. Why not be clever and let the bleeding hearts out there have all the rope they need to hang themselves? You do believe you’re right, don’t you?

James Kroeger

Fixing Our Public Schools

March 20th, 2006

I guess it’s not surprising that the Republican Party proposes that we deal with poor quality educational outcomes in many of America’s public schools by (A) threatening teachers if they do not produce better results (AKA `testing’), and by (B) giving parents the option of putting their children in `better’ private schools instead of the `bad’ public schools (AKA `vouchers’). It fits right in with their ongoing campaign to demonize all government institutions as inherently defective in their ability to produce a quality product. Like most Republican proposals on most issues, these ideas on how to fix public schools are simplistic and stupid.

There are two fundamental reasons why public schools (in general) fail to produce the same quality educational outcomes that many private schools are able to produce. Neither of these reasons has anything to do with the ‘government-ness’ of public schools, as Republican politicians like to suggest. One reason centers around the economics of public schools; the other has to do with discipline matters. Today I want to just focus on the economic needs of public schools that are not being met.

Schools are productive enterprises, just like any business. They bring together certain inputs and use them to create an output (product) that we call `education.’ As in any other productive enterprise, the quality of the educational product that students receive depends on the quality of the inputs that are used. If you want superior quality, you can’t skimp on the ingredients. It’s just that simple. Public schools that produce an inferior educational product do so because they lack the resources they need to be able to produce better educational outcomes.

What kind of resources are we talking about? Well, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have more computers, etc., but high-tech hardware is not the Number One resource that poorer public school districts are in dire need of. The one resource their teachers need in much greater quantities is time. It takes time to help students who do not regularly make the honor roll. The kids who make A’s all the time are `low-maintenance’ students who require only a minimal amount of explanation in order to get good grades. It’s the kids who are struggling who require more of a teacher’s time, and those are the kinds of students one sees more often in the poorer school districts.

Private schools are able to produce better educational outcomes largely because they are able to restrict admission to only those students who can afford to pay the high price of a private school education. For a number of reasons, these students tend to be of the `low-maintenance’ type. Given a certain amount of time to spend each day, teachers in private schools find it much easier to produce higher-quality educational outcomes overall than teachers in public schools (who have many more `high-maintenance’ students). Give the teachers in poorer school districts the time resources they need to teach more high-maintenance students and they will be able to produce much better results.

How do we give teachers more of the time they need to teach high-maintenance kids? Reduce the number of students that they must teach. Most parents and taxpayers don’t realize it, but teachers spend an enormous amount of time outside of the classroom grading tests/quizzes/projects and evaluating each child’s performance. Much individual instruction must also be provided after class hours. Interaction with the parents of every student is absolutely crucial and that is something that can only happen after class hours. If a teacher has twenty students or more in his class, then he is simply not going to have the time to spend on each child that he would have if he had half as many students.

I argue that parents would get the kind of quality educational outcomes that they want if the average class size nationally were reduced to between 7-8 students per teacher. The bottom line that should not be too shocking to any of us is this: if America wants to improve the quality of the education that American children receive in the nation’s public schools, it will have to pay more for it. We need more teachers and more classrooms in order to shrink student-to-teacher ratios. That costs money, the kind of money that the federal government could provide to local school districts.

Republican politicians tell us that we can get superior quality in education without paying more for it by simply getting tough with teachers and `demanding better results’ from them. It is yet another example of the general incompetence of Republican politicians at the art of governing. The sober reality they refuse to acknowledge is that teachers are doing all that they can with the limited resources they have to work with. In part two, I’ll discuss the things that local school districts can do to solve the discipline problem that teachers face in their classrooms.

(How To Pay For More Teachers.)

Withdraw From Iraq In 3-6 Months

March 23rd, 2006

Nontrivial Pursuits links of interest:
Republican Nemesis
Economic Justice

Three years after he started the Iraq War, George Bush has made it known that America’s troops will be staying in Iraq for at least another three years. Although Democrats in Washington have been quick to complain about Bush’s conduct of the war and about the way he ‘lied us into it’, they still seem to be having a difficult time coming up with an alternative plan for getting our troops out of Iraq much sooner. They may not yet realize it yet, but there really is a ‘responsible’ way for America to end its occupation of Iraq in as little as 3-6 months. Here’s how you do it…

The reason why we can’t simply abandon Iraq is because possibly hundreds of thousands of Iraqis would die in the civil war that we’d be leaving behind us. But the fact that Iraq has crucial security needs right now does not establish the case for keeping U.S. troops stationed in the country, not when you realize that our presence there is one of the primary causes of the militarization of the Iraqi population.

How do we (A) remove one of the causes of the violence—-our presence there—-while (B) providing the Iraqi people with the security they need when we are gone? Answer: arrange to have some other ‘foreign troops’ occupy the country when we leave. The question is who do we get to take over such a thankless task?

One possibility would be the United Nations, but there is reason to believe that most of the nations that criticized our decision to go into Iraq (France, Germany, Russia, and China) would not be eager to send their own troops into the mess we created. So who else? Right now I’m thinking the best approach would be to arrange for some kind of Grand Coalition of Muslim Nations to take over the security duties. It’s the kind of challenge that a competent State Department would be able to pull off.

If the foreign troops that are occupying Iraq all come from Muslim nations, the fundamental cause of the current insurgency—-the presence of ‘Infidel’ troops in Muslim lands—-would no longer be stoking violent passions. Al Qaeda would finally be deprived of its Number One recruiting pitch (“Help us drive the Infidels out of Muslim lands!”). This would leave only the ‘sectarian violence’ between Sunni and Shiite for Muslim security forces to deal with.

In order to end the fighting between Sunni and Shiites in Iraq, it may be ultimately necessary to partition the country into two separate countries. Why two countries (Sunni and Shiite) and not three (Sunni Arab, Sunni Kurd and Shiite Arab)? Because an independent Kurdistan would provide Turkey with a strong incentive to send its troops into northern Iraq after we have left. If we can avoid that headache, we really should. It ought to be a lot easier for Sunni Arabs and Sunni Kurds to put together a working relationship than it is to bring all three factions together.

This particular two-state solution would, of course, inevitably lead to a close alliance between the new Arab Shiite nation and Iran. Maybe that would be a bad development or maybe it wouldn’t. The uncertainties of that direction are probably enough for us to make an earnest effort to maintain the status quo—-preserve Iraq’s current borders—-and hope that George Bush’s vision of a compromising ‘unity government’ might still have a chance to work, once our soldiers are no longer around, inciting the passions of all the parties involved.

If a one-state solution is to have any chance of succeeding, the Muslim occupation army that replaces us must be able to provide the Iraqi people with the kind of security that America’s tiny occupation army has thus far been unable to provide. Our forces in Iraq may be powerful enough to defeat any attacker, but we do not have anywhere near the kind of troop strength in Iraq that is necessary to disarm the population and end all insurgent activity.

If a Grand Coalition of Muslim Nations is to succeed where we have failed, they may very well need to station [for a limited period of time] as many as 1-2 million troops in Iraq in order to crush all militia activity. That’s how you end the kind of violence that we are seeing today in Iraq. You can’t ‘pussy-foot’ around. The sooner we can establish a massive and powerful presence of Muslim occupation troops throughout Iraq, the sooner the sectarian fighting will be brought to an end.

If America wants to succeed in preventing civil war when it pulls out its troops, it must be willing to pay the expenses (within reason) of the cost of the Muslim occupation army as a sort of penance for creating the mess. We just might find that the EU would be willing to help us with the bills since they would no longer have to feel embarrassed to be associated with us. We would be paying the Muslim Coalition to prevent the outbreak of civil war and to give Iraq’s politicians the time to put together some kind of viable government.

Removing ourselves physically from the region would not mean an end to our influence in the area. If America underwrites the expenses of a Muslim Coalition Occupation Army, it will still have a tremendous amount of influence on the decisions that are made by coalition members. We could always ‘sweeten the deal’ if the Muslim occupation authorities were to enable Iraq to actually put together some kind of democracy. We would want to strongly suggest that that a failure to enable the democratic process to continue could prompt America to cut off its funding of the occupation.

Set up in the proper way, a Grand Coalition of Muslim Nations would likely be seen by all Islam as a great opportunity to demonstrate to the world that they can succeed where America failed in bringing peace to the Iraqi people. Our soldiers wouldn’t be dying there and we would finally be able to put this embarrassing part of our history behind us. Just think of how nice it will be to once again enjoy the respect of the rest of the world.

James Kroeger

Fixing Our Public Schools, Part II

March 30th, 2006

In a previous blog entry (Fixing Our Public Schools) I emphasized the importance of spending money on class size reduction to improve the quality of a public school education. But as important as I think it is for society to invest greater [time] resources in the educational process, I don’t think it is quite as important as fixing the discipline problem that we see in public schools. I’m going to argue today that the existence of discipline problems in the ‘higher grades’ (say, 7th grade and up) is due to a lack of freedom and choices.

You see, in most public schools today, there are kids who don’t want to be there. They don’t value being in a classroom. They want to do something—-anything—-else. They don’t care about how well they do in class, so they are disruptive. Their presence in the classroom is a harmful distraction to those students who would probably enjoy being in school a lot more if not for the presence of students who are making them think that perhaps they are “missing out on something.”

What I see in this situation is a lack of structural incentives in the public school model. If all children are forced to attend classes whether they like it or not, then you’re going to end up with a class environment that is not optimal for serious students. For the sake of those students who like being in school (or would like being in school if things were different) we need to ‘cleanse’ the classroom environment of all malcontents. Instead of forcing teenagers to attend school when they really don’t want to be there, we should give them some choices.

Here are the choices they should be given: Children should understand that when they reach the age of approximately 14, they will have a choice to either (1) continually earn the privilege of attending school through earnest application of effort, (2) work full-time for some private/public employer that the state finds acceptable (working for a drug dealer wouldn’t be), or (3) go to the Other Place we will set up where they will work, anyway. Two options that would not be considered acceptable would be (A) staying home and watching TV, and (B) hanging out with your friends. “Idleness” in general would not be an option.

If a kid wants to work instead of going to school, then why not let her? It would certainly be better than putting her in a classroom where her discontent begins to affect others. Just because a kid chooses to go to work at the age of fourteen doesn’t mean that she would forever be forced to forsake the option of taking another shot at school later. That option should always be available to a citizen. Once a kid gets a good feel for what it’s like to work full-time for a living, she just might find she has some real incentive to study hard and seek to make some teacher pleased with her effort. This is just the kind of incentive that some kids need in order to resist the temptations of teenage social life and apply themselves to the challenges of being a successful student.

Teachers of teenagers should never have to deal with anything other than sporadic and mild disciplinary issues. School should be presented as a place of Special Privilege, that every child has a right to attend as long as she is willing to earnestly apply herself. If much individual instruction is required, then it should be provided (teachers/schools must be provided with the time resources they need). The ‘door should always be open’ to those who tried working for a while and decided that maybe they should try going back to school to achieve more with their young lives.

Those who choose not to go to school would have to be monitored by the state. Private employer jobs must be considered legitimate or the child will be forced to show up every work day at the Other Place we will set up. We won’t call it a Boot Camp; perhaps we’ll call it a Structured Day Center. Attendance will be compulsory. Their days will be tightly structured and they will work for a wage. Those who choose not to attend this Other Place voluntarily (or to go to school or work elsewhere) will be forced to stay in the ‘dorms’ we’ll set up. They’ll be allowed to see their parents on the weekends. (Such kids would be so ‘incorrigible’, their parents would probably thank the state for doing them the favor).

Yes, ultimately our freedom and our choices are limited. It’s important for us to have choices, but there are some individual choices that we as a society do not find acceptable, like killing those jerks who cut us off in traffic. To give teenagers more freedom than is granted within these parameters is to put society at unnecessary risk. Of course every effort should be made to ‘reform’ those teenagers who are ‘incentive-challenged.’ My recommendation is that we give teenagers more freedom than they currently have, but not, of course, unlimited freedom.

This kind of approach to public school organization would improve incentives at every level. The ‘good students’ will be delivered from the distractions of malcontents and will feel as though they are enjoying a special privilege that they are earning. The kids who don’t want to be in school will either become happier as productive citizens or they will discover from their experience of life’s other options that they just might want to ‘straighten up’ and get their butts back in school and behave themselves. Those kids who are ‘truly incorrigible’ will no longer be permitted to occupy themselves in ways that often end up being criminal in nature. Society as a whole, and certain neighborhoods in particular, would enjoy a welcome reduction in crime rates.

Ultimately, incentives matter a lot. I’m not sure how it is that our public schools became emasculated baby-sitters of our restless youth, but that has got to change. If we make it a privilege to attend school as a teenager, we will soon see that private schools no longer have an advantage over public schools. I’m quite confident that once we set up the proper incentives, the number of teenagers who choose to work (or be institutionalized) instead of being students will continue to shrink to very small numbers.

They will get the help that they need.

Democrats Divided On Immigration

April 4th, 2006


Nontrivial Pursuits links of interest:
Republican Nemesis
Economic Justice

It seems as though the Democratic Party has always been somewhat pro-immigrant, if not actually pro-immigration.  That is to say, Democrats seem to have viewed immigrants as deserving of sympathy because they are poor and all, but at the same time, the native poor of this country [who also deserve our sympathy] feel threatened—-and for good reason—-by the influx of immigrant labor because it tends to drive down their wages.

From these two distinct sympathetic Points of View we have seen the development of two separate factions within the Democratic Party.  Yes, we’re talking about the Pro-Immigrant Democrats vs. the Labor Democrats.  During the past week these two groups have become, shall we say, increasingly impatient with each other.  Some Pro-Immigrant Democrats were starting to sound like they were accusing Labor Democrats of being racists who “just hate foreigners.”  In response, many LD’s have started to accuse PID’s of having a traitorous lack of sympathy for “America’s own poor.”

This kind of division within the party is never a good thing.  Unfortunately, ‘party regulars’ have demonstrated during the past week that they are quite clueless as to how it might be possible to get these factions on the same side.  Although both sides are guilty of missing opportunities to resolve their differences, I put slightly more blame on the Pro-Immigrant Democrats for not allowing themselves to fully appreciate the concerns of Labor Democrats.

Who can really blame Labor Democrats for not wanting to see the bargaining position of America’s working poor deteriorate even more than it has during the past couple of decades?  It’s not difficult to see the root of their concerns.  In a Market Economy, workers will only see real gains in their wages if the demand for labor becomes greater than the supply.  Given this reality, Labor Democrats are rightfully concerned about immigration because it brings more job-seekers into an economy where real wages have been in decline for quite a while.

Instead of addressing this fundamental concern, Pro-Immigrant Democrats have typically fallen back on sympathy arguments and on borrowing the “it’s not so bad” arguments that have been generated by Republican Corporate Interests to downplay the consequences of immigration on the domestic labor market.  Not surprisingly, it’s an approach that hasn’t won over too many Labor Democrats.  If PID’s want to gain the support of LD’s to their cause, then they are going to have to support measures that would completely eliminate the concerns that LD’s have about low wages.  Do that one thing and they will find Labor Democrats eager to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with them in opposing harsh restrictions on immigration.

Instead of being viewed as a threat by LD’s, PID’s could easily transform themselves into The Best Friends of Labor.  All they need to do is start putting the blame for Labor’s predicament where it truly belongs.  The problem is not too much supply in the labor market, it’s too little demand.  Unemployed people should be seen as an opportunity, not a problem.  They provide society with an opportunity to produce more real wealth—-Public Wealth—-that would improve the quality-of-life of ALL Americans.

It’s an opportunity that is exploited whenever the Government increases the amount of money that it spends on infrastructure—-highways, sewers, education, etc.  Increased government spending on these Public Wealth Initiatives immediately translates into job creation.  You see, all jobs are ultimately dependent on the spending of others (of consumers, firms, governments).  Any time there is any level of unemployment, it is because insufficient spending is taking place.  This is a problem that Congress can correct at any time by simply choosing to spend more on Public Wealth creation.

Of course, in order for Congress to spend more money, it needs to obtain it from some place.  Are there any citizens in our country who could afford to be taxed more in order to increase the nation’s production of Public Wealth?  As a matter of fact, there are.  You don’t want to tax those who are already spending all of their income; if you did, the total amount of spending would just end up being the same.  Government spending would increase but consumer spending would drop by the same amount.  There would be no net increase in spending or jobs.

If, however, the government were to tax the wealthiest of savers, then we would experience a real drop in unemployment, and a real gain in Wealth Production.  When the government taxes savings, it takes money that was removed from the economy (not spent or received by anyone) and puts it back into the economy by spending it.  The net increase in aggregate spending creates jobs. If Congress increases spending enough through this method, it will be able to eliminate unemployment and bring about an End To Poverty As We Know It.

This is the kind of economic agenda that Pro-Immigrant Democrats could embrace and promote that would virtually guarantee an end to the rift that currently exists between the them and LD’s.  Their position should be: “Put the blame for America’s declining real wages where it belongs.  It’s not the supply of labor that is the problem; it’s the insufficient demand for labor that has been hurting both America’s poor and the poor of all other countries.

Pro-Immigrant Democrats need to tell America: “Look, forget about immigration.  That’s not the problem.  The problem is not having a party in control of Congress that will act to eliminate the problem of unemployment in America.  If Congress were to commit itself to creating and sustaining a chronic Labor Shortage in America, it wouldn’t matter how many immigrants cross the border, we’d still see improving real wages because the demand for labor across America would still be greater than the supply.”

Ultimately, this is an economic agenda that could be exported to other countries.  The reason why Mexico has a big problem with unemployment is because its political leaders have not been willing to tax the savings of Mexico’s richest citizens.  If they did that and spent the money on a vast improvement of Mexico’s infrastructure, then Mexico would leap into a better economic future.  With full-employment in Mexico, you’d find very few native Mexicans wanting to cross the border into America.

Once we’ve fixed our own unemployment problem in America, we could begin to put pressure on countries like Mexico to eliminate their own unemployment problems just like we have.  The result?  The immigration issue completely disappears from the American political scene.

James Kroeger<—bff53e4ad6e2e70665c19ef209867d52—>

The Economy: America Saves Too Much

April 8th, 2006

In my previous blog entry, I suggested at one point that the solution to the problem of unemployment in America is for the government to tax savings and spend that tax revenue on increased production of Public Wealth. One Democrat whom I respect, Jude Nagurney Camwell, had this to say:

At a time in this country when we are a debtor nation and so few are saving, and while credit debt runs the typical American life, I don’t think it’s politically responsible to tell Americans that savings are being treated punitively.

There is no doubt in my mind that Jude speaks here for many Democrats who, I’m sure, would be aghast at my suggestion that savings be taxed. These would be the Democrats—-many of them economists—-who have been regularly citing the decline in the nation’s Personal Savings Rate as proof that America needs to start saving more. Well folks, I’m here to tell you they’re wrong.

In order to pursue this discussion at all, we need to first understand the relationship that exists between savings, spending, and income. The BEA economists who calculate America’s Personal Savings Rate will tell you that money saved is income that is not spent. That is to say:

SAVINGS = INCOME – CONSUMPTION

That’s how the economists at the BEA arrive at a total savings figure; they calculate it from income and spending numbers. America’s Personal Savings Rate is simply the percentage of total income that is saved:

PSR = SAVINGS / INCOME
or
PSR = (INCOME – CONSUMPTION) / INCOME

If you’re mathematically inclined, you’ll want to note that if expenditures are constant, a higher INCOME number will result in a higher calculated Personal Savings Rate.

The reason why the nation’s calculated Personal Savings Rate does not provide us with useful information on national savings is because BEA economists do not include in their calculation of total personal INCOME the income that households earn from capital gains. They have their reasons for doing this but they are not ultimately good reasons, for capital gains income can be either saved or spent on consumption, just like any other kind of income. If they were to include capital gains income as part of total personal income, the result would be a significantly higher calculated PSR.

From this, we can see why the calculated PSR has declined while the Republicans have been running the Federal government. As they have cut the income tax rates of the wealthy, a greater share of the nation’s total income is comprised of capital gains income. This is because the very wealthy are most likely to use the huge gifts of disposable income that the Republicans have given them to buy assets, like stocks and real estate. When those assets appreciate and are sold, they provide income.

It is not, however, this flaw in the calculation of the Personal Savings Rate that tells me that America is currently saving too much. It is unemployment. Far too many Democrat economists have ignored the ultimate economic truth that ALL JOBS IN THE ECONOMY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE SPENDING OF OTHERS (consumers, firms, government). That’s where the money comes from that pays everyone’s salary: the expenditures of people or organizations. Savings have never created a single job, ever.

When there is any level of unemployment in an economy, it is because too much money is being saved. Think about this for a second. What is a recession? Officially, it is a decline in GDP. GDP is a measurement of aggregate SPENDING. Whenever a nation is having any kind of problem with unemployment, there is only one way to solve the problem, and that is by spending more. Where is the additional spending supposed to come from? Well, didn’t we just say a minute ago that any income that isn’t spent is money saved? All else equal, whenever there is a drop in aggregate savings, there will automatically, and necessarily, be an increase in spending. More spending means more jobs created.

In another article I’ve written, I pointed out that increasing the amount of income taxes that are collected from wealthy savers is something that is guaranteed to provide a economic stimulus to the economy. This is because it takes money that would otherwise have been saved (by rich people) and spends it instead. Yes, you heard it right: INCREASING taxes provides a stimulus to the economy if the citizens who are being taxed more are the nation’s biggest savers. Increasing the taxes of citizens who would have spent the money that they would be paying in taxes (the poor and working class) would do no good, because the increase in the government’s spending would be exactly matched by a decline in consumer spending.

Now, to say that there is too much saving occurring in the economy is not to say that everyone is saving too much. If your country’s economy needs a reduction in total savings (an increase in total spending) in order to eliminate unemployment, it makes sense for the federal government to only tax the savings of those who need ‘extra savings’ the least. The ultra rich should be asked to give up much more of their ‘extra savings’ than middle-class savers are asked to give up. Indeed, in order for more people in the lower-middle-class to be able to save more without their additional savings hurting the economy, it is necessary to ask the ultra rich to save substantially less. For a number of reasons, the best way to achieve this goal is to simply make the income tax much more steeply progressive.

There is only one “rate” we can refer to that will tell us if the participants in an economy are—-collectively—-saving enough and that is the employment rate (there are flaws in the unemployment rate). Unfortunately, far too many Democrat economists have embraced without question the ‘more is better’ assumption when it comes to savings. It’s a simplistic assumption that is flawed on many levels. Let’s hope that they can begin to acknowledge that there are certain times when a net increase in total savings will have a positive effect on the economy (when the economy is experiencing hyperinflation) and other times when additional savings will have a negative effect on the economy (when there is any level of unemployment).

Is Saving Money A VIRTUE?

April 20th, 2006

Nontrivial Pursuits links of interest:
Republican Nemesis
Economic Justice

Saving money is a wonderful thing, isn’t it?  If you can manage to save a decent amount, it can provide you with a measure of much-valued security.  Indeed, some people think so highly of the habit of Saving they refer to it as a virtue.  So is that what it is?  A virtue?  Well, let’s just ponder that concept for a minute.  What kind of world would we be living in if everyone were to start saving money and no one were to ever borrow again?

Well, we can be sure that one of the most celebrated benefits of saving money—-the opportunity to earn interest income—-would disappear.  It turns out that savers need borrowers.  So how can we say that saving is a virtuous act if it is necessary for some people to dis-save in order for the savers to benefit?

There is a certain ideal that all savers pursue as a sort of ultimate goal: to save a very large amount of money and then retire and live off their accumulated dollar wealth.  Isn’t that what all the financial experts out there are advising us to do?  But just ask yourself what the world would be like if everyone were to somehow become extremely rich in dollars one day and then we all decided to retire and live off our accumulated money wealth.

We’d all be able to enjoy lives of luxury, right?  Well, no.  What we would soon discover is that we actually possessed no real wealth at all because no one would be producing anything of value that we could buy. In order for savers to benefit optimally from the saving of money, they need to have a lot of other people out there who are not able to save like them, but who are forced to work for a living, instead.  

The Real Wealth of the economy is its productive output: the real goods and services that are produced by our combined work efforts.  The more we collectively produce, the richer we collectively are, in real terms.  It ultimately doesn’t make any sense for us to all seek to become millionaires, because we cannot all live off of the productive efforts of “others.” But that’s actually the Republican Party’s ‘solution’ to the problem of poverty, isn’t it?  

What we should all seek is to maximize the production of real wealth in our economy so that we can maximize our consumption of real wealth. Enhanced economic security is something we can provide ourselves with, but it’s not going to come from everybody finding a way to save more money. The good news is that we can collectively provide ourselves with something (financial security) that we cannot all individually hope to provide ourselves with.

There is yet another very important reason why the practice of saving of money is not always a good idea.  If everyone were to “perfectly embrace” the ideals of thrift that are endlessly promoted by voices within the financial community, the result would be an economic disaster.  That is to say, if all Americans stopped borrowing money and they committed themselves, instead, to the practice of putting off all purchases until they had saved enough money to pay cash for them, America’s economy would immediately collapse into an economic depression, perhaps one that would even exceed the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Why do we know that this is an absolute fact?  Because we know that ALL JOBS IN THE ECONOMY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE SPENDING OF OTHERS.  Just ask yourself where the money comes from that pays for nearly every job holder’s income?  It comes from the SPENDING of other people.  An economic recession is defined as a period of time when there is a decline in aggregate spending (GDP).  When spending drops; jobs disappear.  That’s what happened during the Great Depression; too much SAVING was going on.  People who had `extra’ money that they could have spent, chose to save it instead.  Those who would have spent the money if it had been placed in their hands, did not have it in their possession.

There is no denying that—-all else equal—-an individual will benefit from saving money so long as not everyone else is also saving money.  But we need to understand that the practice of saving money is not a pure virtue because bad things can happen if too many people are saving too much.  Yes, go ahead and try to save as much money as you can, but understand that when there is any level of unemployment in the economy, the government is going to have to reduce total savings if it wants to improve the welfare of all.  The only issue then is which savers should be asked to give up some of their savings in order to help the national interest?  I say tax the savings of those who are in the best position to make a sacrifice: the extremely wealthy.

It may be prudent for an individual to save (or save more) in certain circumstances that are strictly defined, but it is ridiculous to refer to the act of saving money as a virtue.  So can we please stop referring to Saving as some kind of Absolute Good, one that a society can never get too much of?  If anything, economic history has taught us that exactly the opposite is true.

The Misunderstood Relationship Between Savings & Investment

James Kroeger

The Edwards/Kemp Effort To Promote Savings

May 18th, 2006

Nontrivial Pursuits links of interest:
Republican Nemesis
Economic Justice

Senator John Edwards has decided to join Supply-Sider Republican Jack Kemp in an effort to turn America into a nation of savers.  Sounds like a great idea, doesn’t it?  The only problem is that, if such a goal was actually achieved in any big way, the economy would be thrown into a deep recession, possibly even a Depression.  

When public officials start to talk about the nation’s savings habits, they need to keep a few key economic facts in mind:

Number 1:  ALL JOBS IN THE ECONOMY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE SPENDING OF OTHERS (households, firms, governments).  That’s where the money comes from that pays everyone’s salaries.  An increase in GDP (spending) generally reduces unemployment.

Number 2: MONEY SAVED IS MONEY NOT SPENT.  A decision to save is a willful decision to not spend.  

Number 3: EXCESSIVE SAVING CAUSES UNEMPLOYMENT.  It’s what caused the Great Depression of the 1930’s.  People who had money—-that they could have either spent or saved—-were choosing not to spend it.  People who would have been happy to spend that money did not have it in their possession.  Generally, when people start to save more and spend less, jobs disappear.  When that happens, we call the result a Recession.

If John Edwards wants to join in an effort to turn America into a ‘nation of savers’, he’s going to have to explain at some point why he wants something to happen that we know is going to worsen unemployment (if the goal is achieved in a big way) while at the same time saying that he wants to reduce poverty.  The way out of this dilemma is for the Senator to start being more specific in his stated goals.

Having more savings available at your disposal is a wonderful goal.  The only problem is that it is possible for too much saving to occur in an economy.  As long as there is zero unemployment, we don’t have to worry about excessive savings levels in the economy, but whenever there is a shortage of jobs, the very last thing we need is an increase in total savings.  We’d need more spending of saved money, instead.

This constraint should not deter John Edwards in his efforts to encourage and enable more savings for lower class households, but he needs to start making distinctions.  He needs to point out that when there is too much saving going on in the economy, it does not mean that everyone is saving too much money.  The problem is that some people are saving too much money; even while others are not saving enough.  In effect, these Super Savers (generally, the Rich) are ‘hogging all of the available savings’ that the economy can safely tolerate (without creating or worsening an unemployment problem).

Senator Edwards would be able to help his cause (aiding the victims of poverty)——as well as distinguish himself from other political contenders—-by pointing out that the real problem the nation is facing when it comes to the topic of savings is not that there is an inadequate level of total savings in the economy, but that there is an inequitable distribution of the total savings that the economy can safely tolerate.  The upper-bound constraint that we face when it comes to total savings forces the realization that we can safely increase the savings of the poor and working class only by reducing the savings levels of the very rich.  (Yes, it really is a zero-sum solution.)

When there is any level of unemployment in the economy, the federal government is morally obligated to tax the `excess savings’ of those who need extra savings the least—-the Rich—-and spend that money on improvements in the nation’s infrastructure.  Their excessive savings are thereby re-distributed through job creation to the poor, who are then in a better position to save money for themselves.  That’s really the only way we can increase the savings opportunities of the poor without damaging the overall economy.

Of course Senator Edwards is right that we need to do something to help the poor to save money.  But let’s not let the Republicans take that sympathy and translate it into a general call for all Americans to save more.  We need to be very specific about who needs more savings and who needs less.  It is, of course, the poor who need more savings but at the same time rich people need to spend more of their savings on improving the nation’s infrastructure through their government.

Let’s not let ourselves get tangled up in yet another of the clever obfuscation schemes that the Republicans use so well.

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Israel: Time For Soul Searching

August 23rd, 2006

Throughout this summer’s Israel-Hezbollah war, certain opinion-makers in Israel argued that it was absolutely crucial that Hezbollah be crushed or the consequences would be very dire. Some claimed that Israel’s very existence was threatened. Today, there is little doubt that the Israelis themselves see their army’s failure to destroy Hezbollah as a major setback.

For decades, Israel has sought to provide its citizens with Security by ruthlessly crushing any efforts the Palestinians might make to resist Israel’s absolute power. It’s an approach that is supposed to work in theory by eventually convincing the Palestinians (and their Muslim supporters) that RESISTANCE IS FUTILE. The perception of futility is supposed to be followed by resignation and then sullen acceptance of Israel’s demands. With an Israeli gun pointed at their heads, the Palestinians will supposedly—-eventually—-accept the demands that Israel has been making of them and then peace will finally be achieved.

For a number of years, it actually seemed as though Israel might be able to succeed with this approach. At the end of the last decade, many people were hoping that Yasser Arafat might settle for Peace With Dishonor at Bill Clinton’s urging, but then he ultimately backed off of the idea. Now, in the aftermath of Hezbollah’s impressive “victory” against the mighty Israeli army, everything has changed. Palestinian militants have been given a booster shot of hope and inspiration. But that’s not all; Hezbollah’s victory has also boosted the confidence of Iran’s passionate leaders, who can now be expected to respond to any threats George Bush might make with a smirky, “Bring it on…

So what now, Israel? What kind of future do you have to look forward to? The Wall is not going to protect you from long-range missile attacks. Some day, the enemies you have made will obtain nuclear weapons. What happens to your security then? Do you want peace with your neighbors, Israel, or do you not? Maybe, just maybe, this little wake-up call will prompt Israel’s opinion-makers to begin reflecting at length on the virtues of a fresh, new approach to peace negotiations with the Palestinians. After all, they’ve spent fifty-eight years relying on their Tough Guy approach and it hasn’t worked.

Perhaps it would help if they began by re-examining the most fundamental aspects of their situation. Forget about the immediate threats that you perceive at the moment, Israel, and ask yourselves what kind of peace would you ideally like to experience in the future? Do you want to arrive at a point where you are actually able to live without fear? Do you want to some day see smiles on the faces of your Palestinian neighbors? Do you want to feel a warmth of Good Will radiating from their hearts? If that’s what you want, then you are going to have to try a much different approach from the one you’ve been embracing.

EXTREME GENEROSITY

In order for the Palestinian people to ‘let go’ of all the bitterness and resentment they feel now and start having positive feelings of friendliness for the Israelis, it is absolutely essential that they be able to walk away from the negotiations table feeling as though they had won a tremendous victory. They need to end up with a settlement that is so incredibly generous, and so filled with face-saving Israeli [and American] concessions, they won’t be able to contain their joy at their good fortune. They need to feel as though they have won a great victory and their Muslim sympathizers around the world need to see that the Palestinians are delighted with their good fortune.

What the Israeli people need to understand is that this is the kind of Peace Settlement they are going to want the Palestinians to end up with because it is the only kind of settlement that is going to give them the Lasting Peace—-the freedom from fear—-that they truly want. They need to change the hearts of the Palestinians with something dramatic. The Israelis will know that they have finally achieved true peace when they start seeing smiles on the faces of the Palestinian people, smiles that reflect authentic feelings of gratitude and friendliness toward them.

It’s your choice, Israel. Endless war, with the likelihood of nuclear devastation in the future, or a true and lasting peace with your neighbors. What will the Israeli people get for the high price they might ultimately have to pay? Only their “Right to Exist” from the only people who can legitimately grant them that right, the people who used to own the land before Israel’s founding fathers took it from them at gunpoint. Yes, the Palestinians will be willing to grant the Israelis the right to inhabit and rule the land they once owned, but only if they feel as though they have been handsomely compensated for it.

All of the hatred that half the world currently feels toward Israel would come to an end. The Israeli people may feel as though their founding fathers achieved a great thing when they resurrected the state of Israel from the dustbin of history, but they really haven’t achieved a thing, yet. How about impressing the world with a dramatic and historically unprecedented move to change the deeply resentful feelings that your current enemies have toward you? How about giving the children of Israel a future that is cleansed of their fear of annihilation?

Do you want all of these things, Israel? If you do, then you’re going to have to do something like this:

Agree to a compensation package that overwhelms the Palestinians with its generosity. Give them [virtually] everything they’ve been demanding for the past forty years plus a little bit more. Pre-1967 borders. Jerusalem becomes either an international city, or a multi-capital city. If it becomes supremely important to Israeli negotiators to turn some of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank into Israeli land, then the Palestinians must be given twice as much pre-1967 Israeli land in compensation. The way to win the good will of the Palestinian people is by shocking them with your ‘new leaf’ commitment to astounding generosity.

The Israelis need to get over the urge to get best deal they can, by bargaining “tough” with the Palestinians and threatening them with more pain if they don’t give the Israelis the things that they want. Instead, they need to stun the world with an amazing display of good will and a generous spirit. On top of all the territorial concessions, throw in a huge amount of cash at the Palestinians. Make them feel as though they had all just “won the lottery.” Would $30,000 per family be enough? $50,000? Pour an equally generous amount of money into the construction of new businesses, industries, and modern infrastructure in the new Palestine.

Where would all the money for this come from? Well, if we were to take all the money that Israel and the United States are now spending on their Wars on Terror and then solicit big contributions from Europe, Japan, China, and the rich Arab states, it should not be difficult to put together a pot of around $500 billion, which should be more than enough to overwhelm the Palestinian people and instill within them a feeling of great pride and satisfaction. They would finally have Peace With Honor.

AN APOLOGY

There is one more thing we could give them that would guarantee the success of the Extreme Generosity approach. It is actually something that Israel cannot give them, but the United States can. It is also something that would not cost the American taxpayers a cent. What might this magical ‘something’ be? A formal admission by the United States government that we had been wrong all along in getting ourselves involved in the dispute between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Why would we do such a thing? Because it is the simple truth.

Mistakes made by American leaders in decades past are ultimately to blame for the fear that Americans currently have of one day suffering a nuclear terrorist attack. It was good old Harry S. Truman who first got us involved in the Arab-Israeli dispute and it was his decision in 1948 that put us on the side of the Israelis. At the time, the American people were feeling a lot of sympathy for the Jewish people after the horrors of the Holocaust were revealed, so it was easy for them to consent to a plan to ‘give them a homeland’ where they would be free of persecution.

Unfortunately, everyone in the press conveniently ignored the fact that the land the U.N. decided to give to the Jews happened to belong to someone else. To understand how the Palestinians (and some Jews ) see the creation of the state of Israel, imagine a similar thing happening here, in America. What if the Indians who lived in New Jersey 300 years ago fled by boat to Europe instead of becoming assimilated into the developing American culture?

What if, over the years, those Indians educated themselves and kept their sense of ‘nationhood’ alive and maintained a dream of some day returning to their homeland? What if they started emigrating back to New Jersey in big numbers maybe 60 years ago and made it clear that they intended to get their land back? What if the majority of European nations supported their cause and sent them military hardware and financial support? How do you think the modern inhabitants of New Jersey would feel about the claim that the land really belonged to the Indians because they had once lived there 300 years ago?

I’m pretty sure I know how most property owners in New Jersey would respond. Outraged? You bet. Militant? You can count on it, especially if the seizure took place at gunpoint, as it did in Israel in 1948. The truth is that it is impossible for the United States to justify its support for Israel while declaring loudly to the world that it is outrageous and immoral for one country to invade and annex another. It’s theft at gunpoint, any way you look at it. This is why the Palestinians and their Muslim sympathizers are so crazy angry at the United States, because they see the incredible hypocrisy of our political leaders and are outraged that we do not see the injustice and sympathize with their plight.

Yes, it’s true. Our sympathy for the Jews—-a good thing—-is what ultimately led us to make an incredibly stupid decision to approve an illegal and immoral act. Maybe we weren’t guilty of malevolence, but we are nevertheless paying the price now for the moral/intellectual lapse we had back then. Since Nine Eleven, we have been spending hundreds of billions of dollars on Homeland Security and on the Iraq & Afghanistan wars and we will be spending trillions more in the future if we cannot get ourselves on the right side of history. Does this mean that we are supposed to start hating the Israeli Jews now? Of course not. But no longer can we play favorites.

WISE PARENTS

Americans have become accustomed to seeing the Israelis as their friends. I’m not recommending that we just toss that aside. When a parent sees his child being chased by some angry adults who live at the far end of the neighborhood, he will naturally assume that his child is being victimized and will threaten the pursuers if they do not cease chasing his child. But if he listens to the adults and finds out that his child stole something from them and damaged their property, he will not abandon the child, but will reprimand him and insist that he do the right thing to make amends.

If he is a Wise Parent, he will feel a little embarrassed, but he will not hesitate to scold his child. He will recognize that an opportunity exists for his child to learn some important lessons about life through acts of atonement. But if he is a Foolish Parent, he will ignore all evidence that is presented to him of his child’s guilt and will accuse the angry adults of ‘just hating’ his child for no good reason. He will focus, instead, on being loyal to his family members and trying to defend them from all outsiders, no matter what they might have done to earn the antipathy of strangers.

For 60 years, America has been a Foolish Parent re: the Arab-Israeli dispute. Because our ‘child’ has always been in the wrong, we now have a lot of people around the world hating us for our moral hypocrisy, who see us as an arrogant enemy of Justice. We can bring an end to the Arab-Israeli Feud if we would stop being foolish and start being Wise Parents, instead. We have a moral responsibility to try to talk the Israelis into doing the one thing that is going to bring true peace to their land.

For Israel, it is actually quite simple. They are not going to get True Peace without Happy Palestinians and they are not going to get Happy Palestinians unless the Palestinians are able to achieve a negotiations settlement that is ‘unbelievable’ in its magnitude. Israel can give them that and still keep at least 90% of what they had in 1966. They will have to give up a little, but they will have won the biggest prize of them all, the one that has eluded them for sixty plus years: the acceptance of their “right to exist” by the Palestinians.

When the Palestinians grant them this right, then the rest of the Muslim world will grant it also if face is saved with the gifts of extreme generosity and the United States apologizes to the Muslims of the world for mis-reading their grievance. If/when the United States does this, there won’t be a dry eye in all of Islam. The ‘Clash of Civilizations’ will be over. Peace will have finally arrived.

James J. Kroeger is a ‘Philosopher Economist’ who has presented a number of analytical examinations of various moral/political/economic issues on his website, Nontrivial Pursuits. He has a Master’s degree in Economics from the University of Texas at Arlington but confesses that his ultimate goal is to publish an in-depth examination of the emotional side of Human Nature.
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I Want To Write A Book

December 3rd, 2006

Working title: Smart Rich vs. Stupid Rich.

An advice book for The Wealthy.

Yes, many advice books have been written for those who would like to be wealthy some day, but how many advice books have been written for those who are currently wealthy? My book will explain how this privileged group of individuals can act to OPTIMIZE the amount of real wealth they are able to enjoy in their lifetimes.

I think there just might be a market for such a book.

Much of what I will be putting in Smart Rich vs. Stupid Rich can be found on various pages of my website. If you want to get a good general feel for its content, read Make The American People Richer. Also, The Progressive Income Tax: Theoretical Foundations.

Throughout the book, I will be emphasizing the difference between real wealth vs. financial wealth. To understand the difference, just try to imagine what it would be like if everyone were to somehow become extremely rich in dollars one day and then we all decided to retire and live off of our accumulated ‘wealth.’ We’d all be able to enjoy lives of luxury, right? Well, no.

We’d all soon discover that we didn’t actually possess any real wealth at all, because no one would be producing anything of value that we could buy. The only reason why money has any value to us is because it gives us a claim on the productive efforts of others. How wealthy you actually are depends more on what others are doing than it does on your personal accumulations of paper notes.

The Real Economy is the productive behavior of people; it is the actual goods & services that people are producing and trading and consuming. If we want to optimize the welfare of the citizenry, rich and poor alike, then we must optimize the productive output of the populace.

Ultimately, discussions about money flows should only matter to us if it can be shown that they affect the status of the Real Economy in some way.

So if you are already rich and you want to become richer still, then you are going to want to make sure that all able-bodied and able-minded people out there are producing something of value. Why? Because those who are not working do not stop consuming; they just aren’t producing any of the stuff they consume. Somebody else is.

As a society, we all become richer in real terms when all those who are idle become productive. Look at it like this: if a portion of your productive output is no longer needed to help provide for the basic consumption needs of the unemployed (because they are now producing for themselves), then that means more of your output becomes available for your own consumption.

If I am successful in my composition efforts, rich people will come to see that their personal enjoyment of wealth and their financial [& even physical] security are dependent on their ability to get all those idle poor people out there working. That’s when it really becomes fun to be rich. Not only do you get to be rich, but you also get to know what it feels like when all the people who are poorer than you actually feel gratitude toward you for what you have made possible for them.

The best thing about the economic agenda I propose? The wealthy are not asked to make any kind of real, material sacrifice. Contrary to what their friends over at the Republican Party have been suggesting to them, it is not possible to deprive the wealthy of any of their purchasing power when they are asked to pay taxes in a way that preserves their ‘rankings’ within the hierarchy of all disposable incomes earned.

This may be the single most important insight that my book will provide to the rich people who run our country. Market economies guarantee that the wealthy cannot be hurt by progressive income taxation. To understand why, read the book when it comes out or simply read through the articles I’ve provided links to. Your eyes will be opened to a new world of possibilities.

Unfortunately, I don’t really know how to go about getting this book published. The first problem is that I don’t have any time to spend on composition. My financial circumstances are such that I must spend all of my time either working as a wage earner or on trying to figure out how to earn more income in order to meet my obligations to my family. They have great needs right now (medical costs, a Christmas without presents, etc.) and are depending on me. Maybe I could fulfill my obligations to them and still write the book if I could somehow get a decent-sized advance, but I have no contacts with people who are in publishing and I don’t know who might be receptive to my ideas.

Prior to composing this blog entry, it occurred to me that I really should be using all of the resources at my disposal in my search for needed income, and that would include my website. I may not get a lot of traffic coming to my site [since there has been no time/money to promote it] but I do seem to be getting an increasing number of visitors to my site who were referred by search engines like Yahoo, Google, and MSN.

So I’ve decided to make this appeal to those who aren’t afraid to invest in a possible happy future. Maybe some wealthy soul out there who sympathizes with my goals will read this and feel inspired to help me turn this book into a reality. Or maybe some regular visitor who happens to know some people in the publishing business will mention my work to them.

So there you have it, folks. All I can really do at this time is present myself and my idealistic goals to the world through my website and then see if anybody cares. If you have any advice for me on how to get my articles turned into a book, send me an email at:

james@nontrivialpursuits.org

My family and I would be most grateful…

James J. Kroeger<—1864b3ba0911299ae74b6b42e5be45df—>